Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212026 260830 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.10 166.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.4 27.1 32.0 38.7 38.1 62.4 51.8 72.9 N N U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 111.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 113.0 123.0 96.0 130.0 F F F F F F F VF Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 26.0 36.0 18.0 23.0 23.0 78.0 79.0 U U N U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 55.0 52.0 48.0 45.0 39.0 40.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 7.0 7.0 5.0 15.0 48.0 29.0 N N N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 2.9% 8.2% 5.5% 30kt / 24h 1.5% 2.4% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 45kt / 36h 2.9% 6.3% 4.6% 55kt / 36h 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 55kt / 48h 22.8% 1.7% 12.2% 70kt / 48h 8.1% 0.7% 4.4% 65kt / 72h 35.3% 1.2% 18.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.66 WP212026 260830 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.10 166.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.4 27.1 32.0 38.7 38.1 62.4 51.8 72.9 N N N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 58.0 55.0 52.0 48.0 45.0 39.0 40.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 7.0 7.0 5.0 15.0 48.0 29.0 N N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%