Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212026 260830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70    166.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  42.1  44.3  33.7  72.0  45.4  25.9  20.5  U VU VU  U VU VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 119.0 110.0 112.0 111.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0   0.0  -5.0  60.0  20.0  -9.0  -6.0 -14.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  48.0  46.0  47.0  54.0  51.0  55.0  N  U  U VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   4.0  13.0 -10.0 -49.0 -16.0   0.0  -5.0  U  N  U  F VF VF  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        4.2%        2.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        0.5%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.2%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h       28.6%        5.0%       16.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 WP212026 260830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70    166.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  42.1  44.3  33.7  72.0  45.4  25.9  20.5  F VF VF  F VF VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  48.0  46.0  47.0  54.0  51.0  55.0  N  F  F VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   4.0  13.0 -10.0 -49.0 -16.0   0.0  -5.0  F  N  F  U VU VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%