Rapid Intensification Guidance WP212026 260831 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.60 167.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.60 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.5 43.8 42.0 42.4 43.5 71.6 36.6 26.6 U VU VU VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 106.0 109.0 115.0 115.0 91.0 95.0 113.0 112.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 6.0 23.0 20.0 35.0 49.0 80.0 75.0 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 52.0 47.0 40.0 59.0 62.0 60.0 N U U VU VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 5.0 5.0 -9.0 -80.0 -95.0 40.0 27.0 U N N F VF VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.7% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 2.1% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 4.3% 0.4% 2.3% 70kt / 48h 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 29.5% 3.6% 16.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.72 WP212026 260831 00UTC Storm Located at : 32.60 167.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.5 43.8 42.0 42.4 43.5 71.6 36.6 26.6 F VF VF VF VF VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 52.0 47.0 40.0 59.0 62.0 60.0 N F F VF VF F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 5.0 5.0 -9.0 -80.0 -95.0 40.0 27.0 F N N U VU VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%