Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212026 260831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.0  46.9  32.4  38.6  62.8  59.5  36.3  20.5 VU VU  U  U VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 110.0 117.0 103.0  89.0 106.0 110.0 112.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  22.0  45.0  36.0  63.0 124.0  94.0  38.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  48.0  46.0  42.0  48.0  61.0  54.0  58.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   3.0 -23.0 -78.0 -88.0   9.0   9.0  -2.0  U  N VF VF VF  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.5%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        4.6%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        1.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        1.7%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        0.3%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.2%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h       30.7%        3.5%       17.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.72

 WP212026 260831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.0  46.9  32.4  38.6  62.8  59.5  36.3  20.5 VF VF  N  F VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  48.0  46.0  42.0  48.0  61.0  54.0  58.0  F  F VF VF  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   3.0 -23.0 -78.0 -88.0   9.0   9.0  -2.0  F  N VU VU VU  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        3.4%        0.2%        1.8%