Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212026 260831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.8  46.9  43.1  46.7  62.3  28.4  19.3  17.3 VU VU VU VU VU  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  107.0 113.0 112.0  96.0  99.0 105.0 105.0  89.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  36.0  66.0  81.0  95.0  93.0  45.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  42.0  37.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  63.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -9.0 -37.0 -58.0 -62.0  22.0  17.0  -7.0  F  F VF VF VF VU  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.7%        0.3%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        0.1%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h       50.0%        4.0%       27.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP212026 260831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90    167.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.8  46.9  43.1  46.7  62.3  28.4  19.3  17.3 VF VF VF VF VF  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  45.0  42.0  37.0  53.0  53.0  57.0  63.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -9.0 -37.0 -58.0 -62.0  22.0  17.0  -7.0  U  U VU VU VU VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       11.4%        0.4%        5.9%