Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  19.8  17.9  16.7  20.5  13.2  31.6  42.7  F  N  F  F  N  F  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  34.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  22.0  35.0  29.0  21.0  77.0  18.0  23.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  64.0  52.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  12.0  13.0   4.0   0.0   5.0  -4.0  F  F  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.3%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       18.9%       11.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        9.3%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        9.3%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        9.3%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       19.8%       11.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        7.7%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%       14.1%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        7.2%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        8.3%        4.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 WP222026 260901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  19.8  17.9  16.7  20.5  13.2  31.6  42.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  64.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  12.0  13.0   4.0   0.0   5.0  -4.0  U  U  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%