Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    132.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  16.1  12.1  12.2  10.8  21.2  33.2  44.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  32.0  34.0  32.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  39.0  36.0  -1.0  52.0  27.0   0.0  80.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  64.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   6.0   7.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.7%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       24.0%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%       12.9%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%       12.9%        7.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       12.9%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h        6.8%       28.5%       17.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%       13.5%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%       20.9%       15.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%       10.2%        6.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        9.6%        5.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP222026 260901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    132.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  16.1  12.1  12.2  10.8  21.2  33.2  44.5  N  U  U  U  U  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  64.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   6.0   7.0   5.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%