Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    133.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  12.0  12.8  13.7  10.8  22.6  30.4  37.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  33.0   2.0   1.0  33.0   1.0  34.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  37.0   0.0  24.0  53.0  25.0  16.0  64.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  70.0  67.0  76.0  71.0  61.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0   5.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.5%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%       20.9%       12.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%       10.2%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%       10.2%        6.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       10.2%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.8%       27.6%       17.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.2%       12.1%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.8%       17.6%       13.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        8.3%        5.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%       12.2%        8.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 WP222026 260901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    133.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  12.0  12.8  13.7  10.8  22.6  30.4  37.4  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  70.0  67.0  76.0  71.0  61.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0  -2.0   5.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%