Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    132.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  13.3  17.1  15.0  19.4  29.8  32.9  17.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   1.0  33.0  36.0  35.0   1.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  -4.0  -8.0  42.0  54.0  44.0  14.0  30.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  60.0  47.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  N  N VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0  11.0   5.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%       14.4%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        6.4%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        5.7%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.5%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       18.0%       10.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        6.6%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        9.6%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        3.8%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        9.5%        6.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP222026 260902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    132.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  13.3  17.1  15.0  19.4  29.8  32.9  17.9  U  U  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  72.0  60.0  47.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  N  N VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0  11.0   5.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%