Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  17.3  13.8  10.9  26.9  31.1  27.2  18.9  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0  33.0  35.0  36.0  33.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  -8.0  42.0  31.0  22.0  13.0  22.0  14.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  65.0  53.0  47.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  N  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   8.0   2.0   4.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.8%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        5.6%       26.1%       15.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%       14.2%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       14.0%        8.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       14.0%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.4%       25.4%       15.4%
 55kt / 36h        2.7%       10.8%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%       12.2%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        5.4%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%       10.1%        6.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP222026 260902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    132.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  17.3  13.8  10.9  26.9  31.1  27.2  18.9  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  65.0  53.0  47.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  N  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   8.0   2.0   4.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%