Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  18.2  15.6  20.5  28.7  35.5  17.0  24.1  N  F  F  N  N  U  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0  35.0  36.0   1.0   1.0  36.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0  10.0  18.0  38.0  22.0   8.0  30.0  -6.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  60.0  55.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0   5.0  12.0   9.0  -2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%       18.3%       10.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        8.9%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        8.4%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        8.2%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       13.9%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        4.8%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        4.9%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP222026 260902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  18.2  15.6  20.5  28.7  35.5  17.0  24.1  N  N  U  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  70.0  60.0  55.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0   5.0  12.0   9.0  -2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%