Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    130.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  15.9  22.7  30.2  38.2  30.7  15.5  18.1  F  F  N  N  U  U  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0   1.0   1.0   7.0   1.0   1.0   7.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  18.0  38.0  27.0  35.0  10.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   7.0  11.0   4.0   5.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        3.6%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       15.8%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        7.2%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        7.2%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        7.2%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        9.2%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.5%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP222026 260902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    130.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  15.9  22.7  30.2  38.2  30.7  15.5  18.1  N  U  N  N  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   7.0  11.0   4.0   5.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%