Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  25.8  30.7  27.0  22.7  12.8  16.3  10.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  19.0  26.0  33.0  32.0  28.0  22.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  30.0  74.0  74.0  26.0  39.0  47.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  63.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   8.0   7.0   9.0  -9.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0  N  U  N  U  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.6%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       15.3%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        6.1%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.6%        6.1%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        6.1%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       13.9%        8.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        4.1%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        9.3%        7.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        4.0%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%       15.0%       11.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 WP222026 260903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  25.8  30.7  27.0  22.7  12.8  16.3  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  63.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   8.0   7.0   9.0  -9.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0  N  F  N  F  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%