Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    129.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  24.0  22.5  27.1  23.0  14.6  14.1  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  46.0  38.0  27.0  25.0  38.0  21.0  14.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  61.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       10.8%        6.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        4.3%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        4.3%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.3%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        7.7%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        5.5%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        6.8%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP222026 260903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    129.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  24.0  22.5  27.1  23.0  14.6  14.1  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  61.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%