Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  27.5  21.1  21.4  11.3  13.3  21.3  14.4  U  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  38.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  60.0  24.0  17.0   8.0  63.0  33.0  43.0  F  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  70.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0  -1.0  -5.0  -6.0   2.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        8.2%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        8.5%        5.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        6.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        8.8%        5.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP222026 260903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    128.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  27.5  21.1  21.4  11.3  13.3  21.3  14.4  F  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  70.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  70.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0  -1.0  -5.0  -6.0   2.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%