Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  25.1  24.2  20.0  14.6  11.4  12.9  14.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   1.0  36.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  24.0  16.0  31.0  15.0  42.0  68.0  31.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.3%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        6.5%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        5.5%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        9.0%        6.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP222026 260903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  25.1  24.2  20.0  14.6  11.4  12.9  14.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0  -6.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%