Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50    128.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  29.3  21.0  15.1  15.6  15.7  20.2  25.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  34.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0   1.0  31.0  20.0  64.0  33.0  50.0  45.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  55.0  60.0  55.0  64.0  73.0  80.0  80.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0  -6.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        8.2%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%        8.0%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        6.1%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        6.7%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP222026 260904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.50    128.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  29.3  21.0  15.1  15.6  15.7  20.2  25.5  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  55.0  60.0  55.0  64.0  73.0  80.0  80.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0  -6.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%