Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.80    127.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  25.8  17.0  14.2  14.5  21.1  21.7  21.1  U  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   1.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  16.0  23.0  27.0  53.0  43.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  58.0  56.0  64.0  75.0  79.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0 -10.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   8.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        7.9%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        7.6%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.0%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        4.9%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        4.9%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP222026 260904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.80    127.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  25.8  17.0  14.2  14.5  21.1  21.7  21.1  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  58.0  56.0  64.0  75.0  79.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0 -10.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0   8.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%