Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  15.4  16.6  14.0  26.0  23.0  27.5  19.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  28.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  32.0  44.0  26.0  47.0  34.0  39.0  11.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  77.0  78.0  76.0  65.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -14.0  -9.0   3.0  10.0   5.0   6.0  -1.0  F VF  F  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.8%        6.0%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       33.8%       22.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.9%       23.1%       15.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%       23.1%       13.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       23.1%       13.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%       25.7%       16.7%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%       10.6%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%       13.1%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        5.4%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        9.5%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP222026 260904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  15.4  16.6  14.0  26.0  23.0  27.5  19.8  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  65.0  65.0  70.0  77.0  78.0  76.0  65.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -14.0  -9.0   3.0  10.0   5.0   6.0  -1.0  U VU  U  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%