Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  12.7  13.6  21.1  25.7  20.0  18.5  19.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   7.0   7.0  36.0  36.0  10.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  36.0  21.0  27.0  36.0  34.0  12.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0   1.0   7.0   5.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       10.3%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.3%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.3%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.3%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%        6.5%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        4.8%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        4.6%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP222026 260905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  12.7  13.6  21.1  25.7  20.0  18.5  19.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -3.0   1.0   7.0   5.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%