Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    127.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  15.1  25.1  31.3  25.7  31.1  21.3  17.2  N  F  N  U  N  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   7.0   1.0  39.0   1.0  23.0  26.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  25.0  33.0  47.0  34.0  39.0  36.0   3.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  65.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   5.0   5.0  13.0   8.0   5.0 -16.0  -4.0  F  N  N  U  U  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.4%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.2%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        4.0%        3.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP222026 260905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    127.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  15.1  25.1  31.3  25.7  31.1  21.3  17.2  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  65.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   5.0   5.0  13.0   8.0   5.0 -16.0  -4.0  U  N  N  F  F  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%