Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  25.4  32.8  32.2  22.7  12.0  15.0  14.4  N  N  U  U  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0  39.0  34.0   2.0  29.0  23.0  34.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  14.0  24.0  32.0   4.0  18.0  17.0  -5.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  75.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  64.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.1%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        6.2%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP222026 260905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  25.4  32.8  32.2  22.7  12.0  15.0  14.4  N  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  75.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  70.0  64.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   7.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%