Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  35.8  32.4  27.8  19.3  13.0  17.5  17.2  N  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0   2.0   3.0  30.0  22.0   7.0  22.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  24.0  33.0   5.0  -7.0  17.0  12.0  -5.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   2.0  -5.0   1.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.0%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.0%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        5.4%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        9.1%        5.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP222026 260905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  35.8  32.4  27.8  19.3  13.0  17.5  17.2  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   2.0  -5.0   1.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%