Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    129.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  25.3  21.6  23.2  17.8  15.2  16.8  24.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   1.0  32.0  23.0  23.0  31.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  32.0   5.0  23.0   7.0 -16.0 -14.0  23.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  70.0  59.0  53.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%       10.1%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.6%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       12.8%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.8%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        8.0%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        3.9%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%       11.8%        6.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 WP222026 260906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    129.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  25.3  21.6  23.2  17.8  15.2  16.8  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  70.0  59.0  53.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%