Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  21.7  22.1  22.4  13.6  19.0  20.7  42.6  N  N  N  N  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   3.0  35.0  31.0  31.0  23.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0   5.0  23.0  14.0   1.0 -42.0  17.0   2.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  58.0  53.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0 -32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.9%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       12.7%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        3.7%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        7.3%        4.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        3.5%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%       10.4%        6.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 WP222026 260906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    130.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  21.7  22.1  22.4  13.6  19.0  20.7  42.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  58.0  53.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0 -32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%