Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70    131.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  23.9  27.4  21.1  20.4  18.7  18.1  44.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  26.0  36.0  18.0   1.0  13.0  24.0  67.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  58.0  54.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   8.0  24.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.7%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        8.2%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        4.6%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        5.1%        4.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP222026 260906 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70    131.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  23.9  27.4  21.1  20.4  18.7  18.1  44.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  58.0  54.0  52.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   4.0   8.0  24.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%