Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  27.6  22.8  22.0  27.9  23.7  46.3  59.6  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0  36.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  23.0  19.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  36.0  18.0  25.0   5.0  24.0  39.0  45.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  57.0  51.0  48.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0 -32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.6%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        6.6%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        1.7%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        3.7%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        3.1%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP222026 260906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  27.6  22.8  22.0  27.9  23.7  46.3  59.6  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  64.0  62.0  57.0  51.0  48.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0 -32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%