Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    132.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  28.5  22.8  22.4  14.2  23.2  33.9  35.2  U  N  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  36.0  34.0  34.0  36.0  34.0  26.0  35.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  14.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0  21.0  15.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  61.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   6.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        8.4%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.5%        5.2%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.8%        5.0%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP222026 260907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    132.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  28.5  22.8  22.4  14.2  23.2  33.9  35.2  N  N  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  61.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   6.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%