Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  25.2  22.7  24.6  21.3  37.8  60.2  73.3  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  36.0  36.0  40.0  40.0  26.0   8.0   2.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0   2.0 -11.0 -11.0  46.0  47.0  38.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0  10.0  24.0  18.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.6%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       12.6%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        5.0%        4.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.1%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP222026 260907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.10    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.6  25.2  22.7  24.6  21.3  37.8  60.2  73.3  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  61.0  58.0  54.0  49.0  50.0  48.0  49.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0  10.0  24.0  18.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%