Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222026 260907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    132.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  24.4  25.2  20.4  21.9  51.4  69.6  78.8  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  40.0  42.0  42.0  42.0   1.0  39.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0  -3.0   9.0   8.0  -8.0  32.0  37.0  56.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  54.0  50.0  49.0  42.0  49.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   7.0  19.0  31.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.3%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.9%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%       11.4%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        3.3%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.7%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP222026 260907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.20    132.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  24.4  25.2  20.4  21.9  51.4  69.6  78.8  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  54.0  50.0  49.0  42.0  49.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   7.0  19.0  31.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%