Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222026 260908 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.30 132.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.9 24.1 23.2 22.7 61.0 83.2 104.8 111.5 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 42.0 40.0 40.0 34.0 36.0 19.0 11.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 8.0 8.0 -10.0 30.0 34.0 53.0 48.0 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 49.0 48.0 46.0 43.0 43.0 46.0 41.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 19.0 21.0 8.0 N N N N N VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 8.1% 4.5% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 2.6% 1.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.1% 1.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.1% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.3% 1.8% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.20 WP222026 260908 00UTC Storm Located at : 30.30 132.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.9 24.1 23.2 22.7 61.0 83.2 104.8 111.5 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 49.0 48.0 46.0 43.0 43.0 46.0 41.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 19.0 21.0 8.0 N N N N N VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%