Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222026 260908 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.10 132.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 34.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.3 20.3 25.4 36.1 51.6 89.5 105.4 105.4 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 34.0 33.0 26.0 21.0 12.0 62.0 62.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 19.0 17.0 3.0 22.0 53.0 29.0 29.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 50.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 49.0 46.0 46.0 U U U U VU U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -1.0 -5.0 -6.0 -8.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 N N F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 8.6% 4.8% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 3.0% 1.7% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 2.5% 1.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.2% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 4.3% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.14 WP222026 260908 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.10 132.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.3 20.3 25.4 36.1 51.6 89.5 105.4 105.4 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 50.0 50.0 48.0 45.0 49.0 46.0 46.0 F F F F VF F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -1.0 -5.0 -6.0 -8.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 N N U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%