Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222026 260909 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 135.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 58.9 59.0 65.8 62.6 69.7 78.4 92.1 97.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 72.0 83.0 53.0 58.0 52.0 69.0 89.0 103.0 N N N N N N F F Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 18.0 -7.0 22.0 20.0 59.0 39.0 18.0 -10.0 U U U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 47.0 50.0 48.0 52.0 52.0 48.0 38.0 VU VU U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -2.0 -20.0 2.0 -3.0 17.0 10.0 -8.0 VF N VF N N U U F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.02 WP222026 260909 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.30 135.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 58.9 59.0 65.8 62.6 69.7 78.4 92.1 97.5 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 47.0 50.0 48.0 52.0 52.0 48.0 38.0 VF VF F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -2.0 -20.0 2.0 -3.0 17.0 10.0 -8.0 VU N VU N N F F U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 12.7% 1.0% 6.8%