Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222026 260909 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.80 137.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.80 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.8 60.1 65.9 66.4 74.9 101.2 106.1 113.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 84.0 48.0 56.0 56.0 51.0 60.0 69.0 104.0 N N N N N N N F Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 11.0 18.0 13.0 45.0 7.0 2.0 -4.0 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 47.0 50.0 54.0 56.0 51.0 40.0 VU U VU U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -35.0 -21.0 1.0 11.0 9.0 30.0 40.0 6.0 VF VF N U U VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.02 WP222026 260909 12UTC Storm Located at : 34.80 137.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.8 60.1 65.9 66.4 74.9 101.2 106.1 113.3 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 47.0 50.0 54.0 56.0 51.0 40.0 VF F VF F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -35.0 -21.0 1.0 11.0 9.0 30.0 40.0 6.0 VU VU N F F VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 16.3% 0.9% 8.6%