Rapid Intensification Guidance WP222026 260909 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.30 140.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 30.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.6 49.2 60.5 64.2 79.9 101.9 104.9 99.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 44.0 53.0 54.0 58.0 54.0 97.0 108.0 U N N N N N F F Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 23.0 43.0 35.0 31.0 19.0 -2.0 -39.0 U U N N N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 52.0 56.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 47.0 42.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 1.0 26.0 27.0 16.0 22.0 26.0 -44.0 F N VU VU U VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.88 WP222026 260909 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.30 140.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.6 49.2 60.5 64.2 79.9 101.9 104.9 99.2 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 52.0 56.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 47.0 42.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 1.0 26.0 27.0 16.0 22.0 26.0 -44.0 U N VF VF F VF VF VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 4.6% 0.5% 2.5%