Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232026 260904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    137.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  20.5  19.6  27.0  23.8  31.6  42.5  26.8  U  N  N  N  N  U VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  16.0  34.0  11.0  28.0  34.0  28.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   122.0 122.0  95.0  64.0 109.0 100.0  19.0  31.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  82.0  80.0  82.0  72.0  65.0  57.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  10.0  14.0   8.0   9.0  -6.0 -10.0  F  F  U  U  U  U  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        7.1%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.8%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        8.5%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.7%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        4.3%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%        5.0%        5.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 WP232026 260904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    137.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  20.5  19.6  27.0  23.8  31.6  42.5  26.8  F  N  N  N  N  N VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  82.0  80.0  82.0  72.0  65.0  57.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  10.0  14.0   8.0   9.0  -6.0 -10.0  U  U  F  F  F  F  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%