Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232026 260905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  16.9  16.9  16.9  16.9  16.9  16.9  16.9  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%       11.6%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.3%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       16.9%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        4.5%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h       12.3%       10.9%       11.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.8%        5.1%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h       19.8%       17.0%       18.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 WP232026 260905 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.50    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  16.9  16.9  16.9  16.9  16.9  16.9  16.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%