Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232026 260905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  24.1  27.0  24.0  26.7  24.8  30.7  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  34.0  36.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  98.0  93.0   5.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  11.0  N  F  F  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   7.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        7.0%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        7.3%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        3.3%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        5.4%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 WP232026 260905 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    132.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  24.1  27.0  24.0  26.7  24.8  30.7  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   7.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%