Rapid Intensification Guidance WP242026 260915 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 148.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.5 12.0 11.0 13.8 15.2 16.4 15.2 17.4 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 67.0 67.0 64.0 53.0 29.0 1.0 81.0 71.0 N N N N U U N N Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 138.0 147.0 127.0 122.0 112.0 54.0 42.0 46.0 VF VF F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 58.0 55.0 47.0 48.0 50.0 46.0 N N U U VU U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -4.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 4.8% 3.0% 25kt / 24h 27.1% 56.9% 42.0% 30kt / 24h 10.8% 34.4% 22.6% 35kt / 24h 3.9% 33.7% 18.8% 40kt / 24h 3.9% 33.3% 18.6% 45kt / 36h 31.9% 70.0% 51.0% 55kt / 36h 18.1% 48.7% 33.4% 55kt / 48h 43.8% 55.7% 49.8% 70kt / 48h 26.7% 48.6% 37.6% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 75.2% 68.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 WP242026 260915 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 148.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.5 12.0 11.0 13.8 15.2 16.4 15.2 17.4 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 58.0 55.0 47.0 48.0 50.0 46.0 N N F F VF F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 -4.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%