Rapid Intensification Guidance WP242026 260915 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 148.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 71.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 21.9 18.8 18.4 18.2 13.4 17.9 21.4 N N N F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 66.0 65.0 59.0 67.0 59.0 29.0 79.0 N N N N N N U N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 77.0 89.0 97.0 113.0 98.0 39.0 30.0 60.0 N F F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 69.0 72.0 72.0 67.0 70.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.6% 6.1% 4.4% 25kt / 24h 26.2% 52.6% 39.4% 30kt / 24h 11.5% 33.6% 22.5% 35kt / 24h 4.4% 33.6% 19.0% 40kt / 24h 2.8% 29.9% 16.4% 45kt / 36h 25.9% 64.9% 45.4% 55kt / 36h 14.6% 44.2% 29.4% 55kt / 48h 46.8% 48.7% 47.7% 70kt / 48h 25.1% 41.7% 33.4% 65kt / 72h 46.3% 59.8% 53.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.20 WP242026 260915 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 148.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 21.9 18.8 18.4 18.2 13.4 17.9 21.4 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 69.0 72.0 72.0 67.0 70.0 66.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%