Rapid Intensification Guidance WP242026 260916 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 148.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 49.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 15.8 20.7 20.0 20.5 14.9 24.1 18.3 N F N N N F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 63.0 63.0 64.0 65.0 42.0 3.0 80.0 N N N N N N U N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 85.0 120.0 118.0 95.0 97.0 46.0 65.0 75.0 F F F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 68.0 64.0 59.0 61.0 58.0 61.0 N N N N U N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 3.0 11.0 0.0 -6.0 -4.0 2.0 N N N U N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 4.6% 3.4% 25kt / 24h 22.3% 43.7% 33.0% 30kt / 24h 10.4% 23.7% 17.0% 35kt / 24h 4.2% 23.5% 13.9% 40kt / 24h 1.4% 22.8% 12.1% 45kt / 36h 22.4% 54.7% 38.6% 55kt / 36h 12.0% 32.1% 22.0% 55kt / 48h 49.2% 42.3% 45.8% 70kt / 48h 25.2% 33.8% 29.5% 65kt / 72h 61.3% 57.5% 59.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.62 WP242026 260916 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 148.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 126.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 15.8 20.7 20.0 20.5 14.9 24.1 18.3 N U N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 68.0 64.0 59.0 61.0 58.0 61.0 N N N N F N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 3.0 11.0 0.0 -6.0 -4.0 2.0 N N N F N U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%