Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242026 260916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    148.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  16.2  15.0  15.7  12.0  10.6  13.0  19.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  67.0  36.0   3.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 118.0 103.0  96.0  78.0  73.0  40.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  10.0   7.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   7.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.8%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h       15.4%       35.4%       25.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       17.2%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       17.0%        9.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       17.0%        9.2%
 45kt / 36h       25.1%       47.6%       36.4%
 55kt / 36h       14.7%       25.0%       19.9%
 55kt / 48h       47.1%       45.1%       46.1%
 70kt / 48h       26.8%       32.0%       29.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       59.0%       60.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 WP242026 260916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    148.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  16.2  15.0  15.7  12.0  10.6  13.0  19.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  10.0   7.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   7.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%