Rapid Intensification Guidance WP242026 260916 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 149.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 41.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.1 13.5 14.8 10.2 8.9 13.0 15.5 23.6 F F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 64.0 62.0 63.0 65.0 60.0 30.0 79.0 80.0 N N N N N U N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 107.0 103.0 105.0 86.0 88.0 60.0 57.0 38.0 F F F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 68.0 67.0 68.0 70.0 63.0 64.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 12.0 N U N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.5% 10.5% 8.0% 25kt / 24h 40.7% 65.9% 53.3% 30kt / 24h 21.3% 51.0% 36.1% 35kt / 24h 10.7% 51.0% 30.9% 40kt / 24h 6.9% 51.0% 28.9% 45kt / 36h 43.7% 76.5% 60.1% 55kt / 36h 29.5% 61.6% 45.5% 55kt / 48h 42.2% 66.5% 54.4% 70kt / 48h 26.0% 57.0% 41.5% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 67.9% 65.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 WP242026 260916 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 149.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.1 13.5 14.8 10.2 8.9 13.0 15.5 23.6 U U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 68.0 67.0 68.0 70.0 63.0 64.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 12.0 N F N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%