Rapid Intensification Guidance WP242026 260922 18UTC Storm Located at : 41.40 157.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 66.4 70.3 68.0 66.9 51.8 38.1 31.7 31.2 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 98.0 86.0 116.0 138.0 168.0 155.0 174.0 162.0 F N F VF VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 -3.0 -9.0 7.0 -8.0 -33.0 12.0 6.0 U U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 41.0 44.0 44.0 58.0 49.0 54.0 62.0 VU VU VU VU U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -46.0 -27.0 -42.0 -93.0 4.0 67.0 -34.0 -6.0 VF VF VF VF N VU VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 12.6% 0.2% 6.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 WP242026 260922 18UTC Storm Located at : 41.40 157.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 66.4 70.3 68.0 66.9 51.8 38.1 31.7 31.2 VF VF VF VF VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 41.0 44.0 44.0 58.0 49.0 54.0 62.0 VF VF VF VF F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -46.0 -27.0 -42.0 -93.0 4.0 67.0 -34.0 -6.0 VU VU VU VU N VF VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.5% 6.1% 52.8%