Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    138.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  16.7   9.9  11.0   8.2  11.3   7.6  10.9  F  F  F  F VF  F VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  25.0  29.0  38.0  54.0   1.0   1.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  76.0  68.0  70.0  29.0  43.0   8.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   7.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        3.2%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h       11.7%       37.9%       24.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       18.7%       12.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       18.7%       10.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%       18.7%       10.7%
 45kt / 36h       17.8%       58.1%       38.0%
 55kt / 36h       12.0%       35.6%       23.8%
 55kt / 48h       40.1%       41.4%       40.8%
 70kt / 48h       22.5%       34.9%       28.7%
 65kt / 72h       39.9%       59.6%       49.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP252026 260923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    138.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  16.7   9.9  11.0   8.2  11.3   7.6  10.9  N  N  U  U VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  63.0  65.0  66.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   7.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%