Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  12.7  14.6  18.8  10.3  10.2   9.2  11.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  29.0  38.0  50.0   1.0  45.0   1.0   6.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  41.0  57.0  31.0  26.0  37.0   2.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  53.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   5.0  10.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        6.6%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       16.7%       45.3%       31.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%       27.2%       18.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.7%       27.2%       16.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%       27.2%       16.4%
 45kt / 36h       15.6%       60.8%       38.2%
 55kt / 36h       10.2%       41.3%       25.8%
 55kt / 48h       25.7%       41.3%       33.5%
 70kt / 48h       11.7%       35.0%       23.4%
 65kt / 72h       19.1%       50.0%       34.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP252026 260923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  12.7  14.6  18.8  10.3  10.2   9.2  11.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  53.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   5.0  10.0   4.0   5.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%