Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    136.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  14.4  18.7  15.5  10.8  11.5  10.3  17.6  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  46.0  53.0   1.0  45.0   1.0   5.0   6.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  57.0  31.0  22.0  23.0  39.0  18.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0  11.0   8.0   1.0   4.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.7%       10.8%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       22.2%       52.2%       37.2%
 30kt / 24h       13.3%       37.3%       25.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.2%       37.3%       22.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       37.3%       22.2%
 45kt / 36h       22.1%       65.7%       43.9%
 55kt / 36h       15.1%       49.2%       32.2%
 55kt / 48h       30.0%       46.7%       38.4%
 70kt / 48h       14.7%       37.8%       26.2%
 65kt / 72h       17.6%       46.5%       32.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP252026 260923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    136.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  14.4  18.7  15.5  10.8  11.5  10.3  17.6  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0  11.0   8.0   1.0   4.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%