Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  19.9  14.8  12.9   9.5   8.8  16.5  22.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  44.0  45.0   1.0   5.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  16.0   9.0  29.0  28.0  -3.0  -9.0   3.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.0%       15.1%       13.0%
 25kt / 24h       32.5%       59.9%       46.2%
 30kt / 24h       20.5%       51.4%       35.9%
 35kt / 24h       19.2%       51.4%       35.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.5%       50.4%       28.5%
 45kt / 36h       23.0%       63.2%       43.1%
 55kt / 36h       14.7%       47.6%       31.2%
 55kt / 48h       20.1%       46.1%       33.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%       31.1%       19.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.5%       29.7%       17.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP252026 260924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  19.9  14.8  12.9   9.5   8.8  16.5  22.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  56.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%