Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    132.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  14.4  16.7  12.7  14.1  16.8  23.8  21.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  44.0  45.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  22.0  -8.0   7.0 -32.0  -8.0 -44.0 -61.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        5.1%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h       10.8%       30.7%       20.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.5%       17.8%       12.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       17.8%       10.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       17.8%       10.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       30.7%       20.2%
 55kt / 36h        6.1%       14.5%       10.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.4%       17.6%       14.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        8.5%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%       11.2%        6.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP252026 260924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    132.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  14.4  16.7  12.7  14.1  16.8  23.8  21.6  N  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%