Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  16.1  14.7  10.2   9.4  16.6  15.0  25.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  45.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  35.0  27.0  26.0   4.0  -1.0  13.0  -8.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       20.8%       12.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%       10.1%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        9.2%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        9.2%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       23.6%       14.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        9.3%        6.0%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%       16.6%       12.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        6.6%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%       13.9%       10.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP252026 260924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  16.1  14.7  10.2   9.4  16.6  15.0  25.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  53.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%